Everyday Murders in Mexico Fall 37% Under President Sheinbaum, Per Government Data

The mean number of everyday murders per month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh government figures. But, security experts have advised that murder numbers could fail to point to enhanced countrywide safety.

Notable Reduction in Daily Averages

There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in last November versus roughly 87 when the President began the presidency in September of last year. This information was delivered by the chief of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen during these months is extremely significant,” the President said, noting that last month the lowest figure of murders were registered for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the government’s heavily military campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over 4x higher than the United States. However, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts urged caution that using homicide statistics to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is especially true in light of the increase in other crimes such as abductions.

“That would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer valid for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to correctly recognize and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month means of daily killings was similarly problematic because it could hide days when there were notably high numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily average makes surges of violent crime unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for major offenses, according to official figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by high bloodshed, with several states in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to construct a story of improvement. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas said.